Managing in a Complex Business Environment: Navigating Uncertainty, Stakeholders, Disruption, and Global Competition
Why complicated and complex problems need different management, what Snowden, Freeman, and Christensen actually argued, where their critics have a point, and how Bangladesh's garment exporters met a tariff shock nobody could forecast.
Md. Mehedi Hasan, LLB, ACS
25 October 2026 · 31 min read · 1 views
In This Article
- 1. Complicated Is Not the Same as Complex
- 2. What Exactly Is Uncertain? Duncan and Milliken
- 3. Environmental Scanning and the Limits of PESTEL
- 4. Stakeholders: Freeman's Argument and Its Critics
- 5. Disruption: What Christensen Actually Argued
- 6. Global Competition Under Moving Rules: Bangladesh's Garment Exporters and US Tariffs
- 7. How Managers Cope When the Environment Cannot Be Predicted
- 8. Decision Lab: The Buyer Who Wants to Share the Tariff
- 9. What Remains Unresolved
- 10. MBA Assignment: An Environmental Complexity Audit
- 11. Test Your Knowledge
- 12. References
When a manager says "the environment is uncertain," what kind of problem is being described?
Sometimes the answer exists and has not yet been found. A new tariff schedule can be read, costed, and modelled by people with the right expertise. At other times no answer exists yet, because it depends on how buyers, competitors, workers, and governments will react to one another and to the manager's own move. Board papers call both situations uncertainty, but they need different kinds of management, and much of the skill of managing in a complex environment lies in telling them apart before choosing a method.
1. Complicated Is Not the Same as Complex
Article 04 examined how managers choose once the options are on the table. This article turns to the environment that produces them. A complicated system has many parts, but its behaviour follows stable rules that an expert can work out: the effluent treatment plant of a dyeing unit, or a pay structure for 4,000 workers. A complex system is made up of agents who adapt to one another, so its behaviour emerges from their interaction and cannot be deduced in advance from the parts. The dividing line is not difficulty. A complicated problem can be very hard, but analysis can solve it, whereas a complex one changes while it is being studied.
The best-known framework built on this distinction is Cynefin, set out by Cynthia Kurtz and David Snowden in the IBM Systems Journal in 2003. They challenge three assumptions common in strategy work, "of order, of rational choice, and of intent." The first is the belief "that there are underlying relationships between cause and effect in human interactions and markets, which are capable of discovery and empirical verification" (p. 462). Such assumptions, they argue, hold "within some contexts" but "are not universally true" (p. 463), and Cynefin maps those contexts.
The 2003 paper separates two ordered domains, known and knowable, from two un-ordered ones, complex and chaos, arranged around a central area of disorder. In the known domain cause and effect are "not open to dispute," and managers sense, categorize, and apply established practice. In the knowable domain stable relationships exist but "may be known only by a limited group of people," so managers analyze and act on expert advice (p. 468). In the complex domain "emergent patterns can be perceived but not predicted," and the recommended move is to create "probes to make the patterns or potential patterns more visible before we take any action" (p. 469). Snowden and Mary Boone's 2007 Harvard Business Review version renamed the ordered domains simple and complicated and advised leaders in complex situations to run experiments "that are safe to fail."
| Domain (2007 name, with 2003 name) | Cause and effect | Recommended response | Typical managerial failure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simple (known) | Clear and undisputed | Sense, categorize, respond: apply established practice | Complacency; continuing with best practice after conditions have changed |
| Complicated (knowable) | Stable, but visible only to people with expertise or analysis | Sense, analyze, respond: good practice chosen by experts | Overconfident experts; analysis paralysis; ignoring the views of non-experts |
| Complex | Coherent only in retrospect | Probe, sense, respond: small experiments that are safe to fail | Reverting to command and control; demanding facts before patterns have emerged |
| Chaotic (chaos) | No perceivable relationship | Act, sense, respond: stabilize first | Keeping command and control in place after stability returns |
| Disorder | Unclear which domain applies | Break the situation into parts and assign each to a domain | Each person treats the situation as the domain in which they prefer to act |
Summary of Kurtz and Snowden (2003) and Snowden and Boone (2007). The "typical failure" column paraphrases the warning signs listed in the 2007 article and, for disorder, the 2003 paper.
Summaries often lose two features of the original. Kurtz and Snowden present Cynefin as a sense-making device: "its value is not so much in logical arguments or empirical verifications as in its effect on the sense-making and decision-making capabilities of those who use it" (p. 468). The boundaries also move. The authors single out the slide from the known domain into chaos as the most dangerous movement, warning that "the longer the period of stability and the more stable the system, the more likely it is for asymmetric threats or other factors to precipitate a move into chaos" (p. 475). Snowden and Boone put it more bluntly: "the most frequent collapses into chaos occur because success has bred complacency." A supplier whose relationship with one large buyer has run smoothly for a decade is the kind of firm the framework expects to be surprised.
Where Cynefin is weak. A model valued for its effect on users is hard to test, and the original papers offer illustrations without evidence that groups using it decide better. Joseph Firestone and Mark McElroy (2003), criticising an earlier version of the model, argued that the boundary between complicated and complex systems is not hard and fast, since a system that looks unknowable today may be knowable tomorrow. Writing about evaluation research, Chris Mowles (2014) criticised simple-complicated-complex typologies more generally, without discussing Cynefin by name, for letting people invoke complexity only "in circumstances of their own choosing." Assigning a situation to a domain is therefore itself a judgment under uncertainty. It is political as well: in disorder, according to Kurtz and Snowden, people "compete to interpret the central space on the basis of their preference for action" (p. 469). An engineering-led team may treat a political problem as complicated and commission another study, while a founder may call a crisis chaotic because chaos licenses acting alone. The framework can expose that disagreement but not settle it.
2. What Exactly Is Uncertain? Duncan and Milliken
Article 04 used Frank Knight to separate measurable risk from unmeasurable uncertainty. Organization theorists asked a different question: what makes an environment feel uncertain to the people inside it?
Robert Duncan (1972) studied 22 decision groups in three manufacturing and three research and development organizations. He described environments along a simple-complex dimension, "the number of factors taken into consideration in decision making," and a static-dynamic one, the degree to which those factors stay the same or keep changing. Groups in dynamic-complex environments reported the most uncertainty, and the static-dynamic dimension contributed more to it than the simple-complex one. A long list of stable factors can be handled by analysis and routine. A short list of moving ones cannot. The study measured perceptions in six organizations half a century ago, so it indicates where to look more than it establishes a law.
Frances Milliken (1987) argued that research on environmental uncertainty had become confused because it ran together three different experiences. In paraphrase, state uncertainty is not knowing how the environment, or part of it, is changing. Effect uncertainty is being unable to predict what a change will mean for one's own organization. Response uncertainty is not knowing what options are available or what each would produce. A firm can be sure of the state of its environment and still face severe response uncertainty.
| Type (Milliken, 1987) | The question a manager cannot answer | Remedies that fit | Illustration: an apparel exporter facing a US tariff change |
|---|---|---|---|
| State | What is happening, or about to happen, outside the firm? | Monitoring, trade-association and legal intelligence, buyer conversations | Will the rate applied to Bangladeshi apparel change again this year? |
| Effect | What will this change mean for us? | Exposure analysis by buyer, product, and contract terms | How much of our order book is priced on terms that assume today's rate? |
| Response | What can we do, and what would each option produce? | Generating options, small trials, negotiation | Would a buyer accept a cost-sharing formula, and at what volume? |
Milliken's three types are paraphrased; the remedies and illustrations are this article's application.
Firms often spend most of their effort on state uncertainty, buying forecasts and briefings, when their real difficulty is response uncertainty, which forecasts do not reduce. In a complex domain, where the answer depends on how others react, response uncertainty yields mainly to probing.
3. Environmental Scanning and the Limits of PESTEL
The standard scanning tool is PESTEL, a checklist of political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors. Textbooks usually trace it to Francis Aguilar's Scanning the Business Environment (1967), which grouped the environment into economic, technical, political, and social sectors. A 2026 working paper by Richard Puyt and Dag Øivind Madsen argues that the tool in fact emerged gradually, as corporate planners, futures researchers, consultants, and teachers simplified earlier classification practices into a portable mnemonic. Its value is breadth: it pushes attention beyond the industry.
The limitations below are this article's analysis, drawing on Duncan and Milliken, not findings of a study of PESTEL.
- It lists factors without connecting them. A US tariff on Bangladeshi apparel is political, economic, and legal at once, and its effect on a factory depends on technology (can the mill use US cotton?) and on what workers expect from the next wage review. Sorting it into boxes splits one interacting problem into separate entries.
- It is a snapshot. If change matters more than the number of factors, as Duncan found, the useful information is how fast each factor is moving.
- It does not weight. It records what exists, which addresses state uncertainty, and says little about effect or response uncertainty.
- It reflects what its authors already believe. Managers record what experience has taught them to notice, and Kurtz and Snowden call the knowable domain "the domain in which entrained patterns are at their most dangerous" (p. 468).
Better practice keeps the checklist but ranks each factor by impact and by uncertainty, notes which factors interact, assigns high-impact items to a Cynefin domain, and dates the analysis so that it is reopened when something important moves.
4. Stakeholders: Freeman's Argument and Its Critics
R. Edward Freeman's Strategic Management: A Stakeholder Approach (1984) is often remembered as a book about business ethics. Its first chapter, "Managing in Turbulent Times," presents it as a book about strategy. Managers faced pressure within the firm's traditional relationships with owners, customers, employees, and suppliers, and also from governments, competitors, consumer advocates, environmentalists, special interest groups, and the media, and they needed a framework that covered both. His definition was correspondingly broad: a stakeholder is "any group or individual who can affect or is affected by the achievement of the organization's objectives." Groups outside a firm's formal boundaries can block or enable its plans, so leaving them out of strategy is a mistake on any moral view.
Thomas Donaldson and Lee Preston (1995) later distinguished three uses of the theory. Descriptive uses explain how managers behave. Instrumental uses claim that good stakeholder management helps firms reach conventional goals such as profit and growth. Normative uses hold that stakeholders' interests have intrinsic value, and Donaldson and Preston argued that this normative base is the theory's foundation. The distinction matters because boardroom arguments slide between "this will pay" and "this is right," and the two claims need different evidence.
Under Freeman's definition almost everyone counts. Ronald Mitchell, Bradley Agle, and Donna Wood (1997) asked how managers decide whom to attend to and proposed three attributes: power to influence the firm, legitimacy of the claim, and urgency. Salience rises with the number of attributes managers perceive, and a stakeholder with all three is definitive. Two of their seven classes are especially useful. Dependent stakeholders have legitimate and urgent claims but no power, so they rely on others to press their case. Dangerous stakeholders have power and urgency without legitimacy.
Attributes can be gained and lost. Illustrative example, not a reported event: unpaid workers at a subcontracted sewing unit have a legitimate, urgent claim but little power over the exporter whose orders they sew. If they block a highway, or a buyer's auditor finds the arrears, they become definitive almost overnight. The salience model describes whom managers notice, not whom they should notice, and many reputational crises begin in the gap between the two.
The strongest objection. Michael Jensen (2002) argued that "since it is logically impossible to maximize in more than one dimension, purposeful behavior requires a single valued objective function." Because stakeholder theorists do not say how to trade one group's interests against another's, "with no way to keep score, stakeholder theory makes managers unaccountable for their actions." Jensen did not conclude that stakeholders could be ignored: "a firm cannot maximize value if it ignores the interest of its stakeholders." His alternative, "enlightened value maximization," keeps much of the structure of stakeholder analysis but uses long-run firm value to settle trade-offs.
On the instrumental question, Amy Hillman and Gerald Keim (2001) found among S&P 500 firms that better relations with primary stakeholders (employees, customers, suppliers, communities) were associated with higher shareholder value, while spending on unrelated social issues was negatively associated with it. The study is correlational and covers large US companies, so it shows neither causation nor that the pattern holds for a Bangladeshi exporter. Jensen's critique has force against a version of the theory that tells managers to "balance" everyone with no criterion. It is weaker against Freeman's original argument, which asked how a firm could achieve its objectives at all when many groups could obstruct it. On that reading the two positions are closer than their reputations suggest, and the dispute that remains concerns legitimate claimants without power: whether a firm owes anything to people who cannot affect its value.
5. Disruption: What Christensen Actually Argued
The theory of disruption, developed by Clayton Christensen with Joseph Bower (1995) and in The Innovator's Dilemma (1997), set out to explain why well-run market leaders lose to smaller entrants. Christensen's answer was uncomfortable: "good management was the most powerful reason they failed to stay atop their industries." Because these firms listened to their customers and put capital where returns looked highest, "they lost their positions of leadership."
The mechanism rests on two kinds of technology. Sustaining technologies improve performance on the measures existing customers value, and incumbents are usually good at them. Disruptive technologies offer what Bower and Christensen called "a different package of performance attributes," which mainstream customers do not value at first but which improve fast enough to invade established markets (1995, p. 44). In disk drives, "not one of the independent disk-drive companies that existed in 1976 survives today" (p. 45). Incumbents fail to respond because customers and investors effectively control where resources go, and because small new markets "don't solve the growth needs of large companies". The prescription was to place the disruptive business "in an independent organization" (p. 52).
In a 2015 restatement, Christensen, Michael Raynor, and Rory McDonald defined disruption as "a process whereby a smaller company with fewer resources is able to successfully challenge established incumbent businesses." Entrants start from either a low-end foothold, serving less demanding customers whom incumbents neglect, or a new-market foothold, where disrupters "find a way to turn nonconsumers into consumers." The authors complained that the theory's "basic tenets" were "frequently misapplied," and argued that Uber was not disruptive, because it built its position in the mainstream market first.
| Sustaining innovation | Low-end disruption | New-market disruption | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target customers | The incumbent's existing, most demanding customers | Over-served customers who will accept a "good enough" product | Non-consumers who lacked money, skill, or access |
| Initial performance on mainstream measures | Better | Worse, but adequate for the target segment | Worse, but better than having nothing |
| Incumbent's typical reaction | Competes hard and usually wins | Retreats upmarket to higher margins | Ignores the new market as too small |
| What the theory predicts | Incumbents usually prevail | Entrant moves upmarket as quality improves | Entrant later pulls mainstream customers away |
Based on Christensen (1997) and Christensen, Raynor, and McDonald (2015); the tabular arrangement is this article's.
The critics. Jill Lepore's 2014 essay in The New Yorker attacked the evidence: "the handpicked case study, which is Christensen's method, is a notoriously weak foundation on which to build a theory." Several cases, she argued, do not fit on inspection (Seagate "was not felled by disruption"), and "disruptive innovation can reliably be seen only after the fact." Andrew King and Baljir Baatartogtokh (2015) asked experts to assess 77 cases cited by Christensen and Raynor against four elements: incumbents improving along a sustaining trajectory, overshooting customer needs, being capable of responding, and floundering as a result. Even with the benefit of the doubt given to the theory, "only seven of the cases (9%) contained all four elements."
Christensen and colleagues (2018) replied that the theory had been refined by "anomaly-seeking research," read King and Baatartogtokh's results as showing the need to define its boundary conditions, and warned against "overuse of disruptive innovation/disruption as a synonym for any new threat." Disruption theory is a well-specified account of one way incumbents lose, and most shocks that managers call disruptive, such as a tariff change, a new regulation, or a rival with a better product, follow other patterns and need other responses. The label earns its place only when it leads to the theory's diagnostic questions: who are the non-consumers, which customers are over-served, and would our own resource-allocation process ever fund a response?
Myths Worth Challenging
✕ Myth: Any new competitor that takes market share from established firms is a disruptor.
✓ Reality: In Christensen's theory, disruption starts from a low-end or new-market foothold that incumbents have reasons to ignore. An entrant that wins mainstream customers with a better product is competing through sustaining innovation.
✕ Myth: Disruptive innovations are technologically radical.
✓ Reality: Bower and Christensen (1995) observed that the technologies that damaged incumbents were "usually not radically new or difficult from a technological point of view." What changes is the package of attributes and the business model.
✕ Myth: Incumbents fail at disruption because they are badly managed.
✓ Reality: The theory's central claim is the reverse: incumbents fail partly because they follow good practice, listening to their best customers and funding the highest-margin opportunities.
✕ Myth: The theory reliably predicts which firms will be disrupted.
✓ Reality: Critics including Danneels (2004) and Lepore (2014) argue that disruption is often identified only after the fact, and King and Baatartogtokh (2015) found all four of the theory's elements in only 7 of 77 cases they examined.
A Bangladesh test: was bKash disruptive? bKash launched on 21 July 2011 as a joint venture between BRAC Bank and Money in Motion LLC, offering cash-in, cash-out, and transfer services on basic mobile phones for people without bank accounts (Future Startup, 22 April 2025). Bangladesh Bank had chosen a bank-led model for mobile financial services in its 2011 guidelines (CGAP, 10 September 2012), and by the end of 2025 bKash reported 8.2 crore registered customers (The Business Standard, 28 April 2026). The new-market foothold fits well: a service far simpler than a bank account, offered to people the banks were not serving. bKash was a subsidiary of an incumbent bank, operating under rules that required bank involvement, and this article found no evidence that Bangladesh's banks floundered as the disk-drive incumbents did, although a full assessment would need more data. In this article's interpretation, it is better described as a new-market innovation captured by an incumbent through a separate subsidiary, close to what Bower and Christensen recommended.
6. Global Competition Under Moving Rules: Bangladesh's Garment Exporters and US Tariffs
The main Bangladesh case here is real and unresolved, and no new technology is involved: it is about trade rules. In fiscal year 2025-26 Bangladesh exported goods worth $9.04 billion to the United States, 4 percent more than the year before, and about 85 percent of them were ready-made garments (Prothom Alo, 24 July 2026). Its rules changed repeatedly over sixteen months.
| Date | Event | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2 April 2025 | US announces "reciprocal" tariffs; Bangladesh faces 37 percent, with implementation postponed for three months | Prothom Alo, 24 July 2026 |
| 7 July 2025 | Rate set at 35 percent | Prothom Alo, 24 July 2026 |
| August 2025 | After further negotiation, rate lowered to 20 percent, applied from 7 August | Prothom Alo, 24 July 2026 |
| 9 February 2026 | US-Bangladesh framework for an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade: rate to fall to 19 percent, with a mechanism letting a "to-be-specified volume" of apparel enter at a zero reciprocal rate, set in relation to Bangladesh's imports of US cotton and man-made fibre inputs; Bangladesh commits to purchases including US agricultural and energy products | White House joint statement, 9 February 2026 |
| 20 February 2026 | US Supreme Court rules 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the tariffs | Supreme Court opinion, 20 February 2026 |
| 24 February 2026 | Temporary 10 percent tariff imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which limits such measures to 150 days | Prothom Alo, 24 July 2026; Bonik Barta, 25 July 2026 |
| 24 July 2026 | After forced-labour investigations of 60 economies, USTR imposes a 10 percent Section 301 tariff on Bangladeshi goods (12.5 percent for China, Vietnam, and Thailand; 10 percent for India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Cambodia). Quotas giving duty-free access to apparel linked to US cotton and textile inputs are to be set up as soon as USTR "determines that it is feasible" | USTR notice, July 2026; The Daily Star, 25 July 2026 |
Position as reported up to late July 2026; this table should be re-checked before the article is published.
Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said: "One 10 percent tariff has merely replaced another. Vietnam was at 10 percent and now faces 12.5 percent, so we may gain a slight edge over Vietnam" (Bonik Barta, 25 July 2026). The Daily Star reported that, with existing duties, the total tariff on Bangladeshi garments entering the US stayed at 25.62 percent, and when the latest reports consulted here were published, the cotton-linked quotas still had no start date (UNB, 25 July 2026).
Through this article's frameworks, the episode breaks into distinct problems. State uncertainty kept resetting: within sixteen months the tariff rested on three legal authorities, and the February framework was negotiated under one that the Supreme Court rejected eleven days later. Effect uncertainty depended on competitors, since what mattered was an exporter's rate relative to Vietnam, India, and China. The parts also sat in different domains. Calculating landed cost under a published schedule is complicated work for customs specialists, but how buyers would divide the tariff burden was complex, because it depended on what each buyer expected the others, and the two governments, to do. New stakeholders became salient as well. The US Trade Representative's office, US cotton exporters, and forced-labour import rules acquired power and urgency over Bangladeshi factories, and the link between duty-free access and US cotton turned a sourcing decision into an instrument of trade policy.
For an individual exporter, a single plan for "the tariff" was the wrong unit of analysis. The legal and costing questions called for analysis, and buyer reactions for small probes. Above all, the firm's position should not have depended on any one forecast.
7. How Managers Cope When the Environment Cannot Be Predicted
The practices below are this article's synthesis. They are recommendations to adapt and have not been tested as methods.
Break the situation apart before choosing a method. Snowden and Boone's advice for disorder is to divide a situation into parts and assign each to a domain. A tariff shock has a complicated part (the legal text and the duty calculation), a complex part (how buyers, competitors, and governments behave), and occasionally a chaotic one (a port closure or a sudden strike). Running experiments on the legal analysis wastes time, and putting buyer behaviour into a spreadsheet produces false precision.
Probe the complex parts with small, parallel experiments. A probe is safe to fail when the firm can afford to lose it: a trial order on new terms with one buyer, a small run with a different fibre, a pilot shift pattern on one floor. Agreeing beforehand what result would justify scaling up, and what would end the probe, keeps it from drifting into a permanent half-commitment.
Pay for some slack. Spare capacity, a second buyer in another market, cash reserves, and staged investments look inefficient in stable years. Duncan's finding suggests where to buy them: against the factors that move.
Treat people as the organization's sensors. Merchandisers hear about a buyer's sourcing review long before the board does, compliance officers notice a shift in audit emphasis, and line supervisors sense unrest. Article 04 showed how information held by one person tends to go unspoken in meetings, and in a complex environment that loss is expensive. The practical questions are whether such information has a route to decision-makers and whether raising it is safe. Appraisal matters too: managers punished for every failed experiment stop experimenting, and an organization that promotes only people who excel at known routines will be short of judgment when the routines stop working.
These practices have costs. Experiments look like indecision to buyers and lenders, slack depresses reported efficiency, and a wider flow of information slows decisions. The case for them is strongest where analysis alone cannot settle the question.
8. Decision Lab: The Buyer Who Wants to Share the Tariff
Constructed teaching case. Dhanshiri Apparels Ltd. is a fictional company, and all company figures, people, and conversations below are hypothetical. The US tariff developments referred to are real and are described as reported up to late July 2026.
Dhanshiri Apparels is a knitwear exporter in Narayanganj with about 2,400 workers. US buyers account for 45 percent of its revenue, most of it from one mid-market American retailer that takes 30 percent of the company's output. A European retailer accounts for another 35 percent. Net margin last year was about 5 percent.
In August 2026 the US retailer's sourcing director asks for a 5 percent price reduction on next year's programme, describing it as Dhanshiri's share of the tariff burden. She points out that Vietnamese suppliers now face a higher rate than Bangladeshi ones and hints that more volume could move to Bangladesh, but only to suppliers who "share the cost." She also suggests that Dhanshiri switch to US cotton to qualify for the duty-free quota "when it opens." No one can say when the quota will open, how large it will be, or how it will be allocated. The merchandising team estimates that US cotton yarn would cost 6 to 8 percent more than current supplies and add three to four weeks to lead times. Meanwhile, the European buyer has begun asking for documented traceability of cotton origin as part of its forced-labour due diligence. Workers expect their annual increment in December, and the factory's participation committee has asked for assurances about overtime pay. The US buyer wants an answer in three weeks.
| Committee member | Position |
|---|---|
| Managing Director | Accept the reduction. Losing the US retailer would leave the factory 30 percent empty, and the Vietnam gap is an opportunity that may not last. |
| Head of Merchandising | The buyer is making the same request to every supplier. Its alternatives are also facing tariffs, so it is negotiating, not deciding. |
| Head of HR and Compliance | A 5 percent price cut cannot be absorbed without touching wages, overtime, or compliance spending, and any of those would put the European relationship and labour peace at risk. A cotton traceability system would be needed either way. |
| Chief Financial Officer | With a 5 percent net margin, the price cut would wipe out this year's profit on the US programme unless volume rises substantially. The bank will ask what happens if the tariff changes again. |
You chair Dhanshiri's management committee. The US buyer wants an answer in three weeks. Which course of action do you support?
Your choice:
This keeps the largest customer and may win extra volume if orders really do move away from Vietnam. But it treats a complex situation as if it had a known answer. It assumes the buyer's hint about extra volume will be honoured, that the tariff gap will last, and that a permanent price cut is the right response to a tariff that has changed repeatedly since April 2025. The cost lands on stakeholders with legitimate claims but little power in this negotiation, workers expecting an increment and the compliance budget the European buyer relies on, and their salience can change quickly. If the committee chooses this option, it should at least make the price conditional on volume and tie it to the tariff rate that prompted it.Your choice:
This protects margins and labour commitments and reduces dependence on a single market whose rules keep moving. It may also be a sound read of the negotiation: if the buyer's alternatives face similar or higher tariffs, its threat may be weaker than it sounds. The risk is that the merchandising head is wrong, and replacing 30 percent of output with new buyers would take seasons, not weeks. The option also gives up a chance to learn what the buyer would actually accept. A flat refusal answers a question about response uncertainty with a guess.Your choice:
This treats the buyer's reaction as something to probe. A one-season arrangement limits the downside, the volume commitment tests whether the extra-volume hint is real, and the tariff clause turns a guess about the future into a contract term. The US cotton pilot produces real cost, lead-time, and traceability data that serve both the US quota question and the European buyer's due diligence. It is not free: the buyer may reject a conditional offer, the pilot adds cost before the quota exists, and managing two experiments at once stretches a merchandising team that is already busy. It is defensible only if the committee agrees in advance what results would lead it to expand, renegotiate, or stop.Your choice:
This bets on the trade-policy direction and could become a competitive advantage if quota access proves valuable and is allocated to early movers. But it makes a large, hard-to-reverse sourcing commitment on the basis of a mechanism whose size, timing, and allocation rules have not been set, in a policy environment that has already shifted several times. It is a decision built on state uncertainty. A smaller pilot (option c) would supply most of the information this option needs at a fraction of the commitment.What the case is designed to show. There is no answer key. Each option can be defended under some beliefs about the buyer, the tariff, and the quota. What distinguishes a strong committee discussion is that it separates the parts of the problem: the cost arithmetic is complicated, while the buyer's behaviour and the quota's future are complex. It also notices which stakeholders bear the cost of each option, including those with little voice in the room, and builds in conditions for revisiting the choice when the rules move again. Before choosing, try listing which of the committee members' statements are facts, which are forecasts, and which are negotiating positions.
9. What Remains Unresolved
The common thread of this article is that the first managerial act in a complex environment is diagnosis: deciding which parts of a situation can be analyzed and which can only be probed, which kind of uncertainty is actually blocking a decision, which stakeholders have a claim and which merely have influence, and whether a threat follows the pattern its label implies. None of the frameworks makes that diagnosis for the manager, and each has been criticized for being clearer on paper than in use.
The problem left open is organizational. Probing, slack, and wide stakeholder sensing pay off in volatile periods and look wasteful in calm ones, and organizations are usually judged, and their managers promoted, on calm-period efficiency. Whether a firm can keep the capacity to cope with complexity through the long stretches when it seems unnecessary is a question about incentives, careers, and governance more than about any framework.
10. MBA Assignment: An Environmental Complexity Audit
Choose an organization you know well, in Bangladesh or elsewhere, that is facing a significant external change now or has faced one within the last three years: a trade-rule change, a new regulation, a technology-enabled competitor, a shift in labour relations, or a supply shock. You may disguise its name.
Prepare a report of 2,500 to 3,000 words that:
- describes the external change and the organization's position as it stood at the time, using dated, sourced evidence;
- breaks the situation into its main parts and assigns each to a Cynefin domain, explaining the reasoning and noting where the assignment is contestable;
- classifies the main uncertainties as state, effect, or response uncertainty and shows whether the organization's actual effort matched the type that mattered most;
- maps the relevant stakeholders using power, legitimacy, and urgency, identifies at least one stakeholder whose salience changed during the episode, and evaluates whether management's attention followed salience or legitimacy;
- assesses whether any part of the change fits Christensen's definition of disruption, testing it against the four elements used by King and Baatartogtokh (2015); and
- recommends a portfolio of responses (analysis, probes, buffers, stakeholder engagement), with costs, limitations, and the conditions under which each should be revised.
Use at least six academic sources, including at least four from this article's reference list. Every factual claim about the organization should be traceable to a document, dated news report, or interview you could produce if asked. Do not invent data; where information is unavailable, say so and explain how the gap limits your analysis.
Assessment rubric (100 marks)
| Criterion | What a strong answer does | Marks |
|---|---|---|
| Description of the change and its context | Accurate, dated, and sourced; separates what was known at the time from what is known now | 10 |
| Cynefin diagnosis | Breaks the situation into parts, assigns domains with reasons, and acknowledges contestable boundaries | 15 |
| Analysis of uncertainty types | Distinguishes state, effect, and response uncertainty correctly and links each to the organization's actual behaviour | 15 |
| Stakeholder analysis | Applies power, legitimacy, and urgency precisely; shows a change in salience; separates instrumental from normative arguments | 15 |
| Disruption assessment | Tests the claim against the theory's elements and reaches a defensible conclusion, including "not disruption" where warranted | 15 |
| Recommendations | Proportionate, costed, and conditional; includes review triggers and implementation risks, including people and capability implications | 15 |
| Use of sources and accuracy of citation | Uses academic and factual sources correctly and only for claims they support | 10 |
| Clarity and professional presentation | Clear structure, precise language, appropriate length | 5 |
| Total | 100 |
11. Test Your Knowledge
MBA Knowledge Check: Managing in a Complex Environment
1. In Kurtz and Snowden's (2003) Cynefin framework, what is the recommended way of acting in the complex domain?
2. According to Duncan's (1972) study of 22 decision groups, which feature of the environment contributed more to managers' perceived uncertainty?
3. A Chattogram freight forwarder must work out how a newly published customs valuation rule will change the duty payable on its clients' consignments. The rule text is available, and specialist customs lawyers can interpret it. In Cynefin terms, which approach fits best?
4. An exporter knows the exact tariff rate its products now face in the United States and has calculated which orders are affected. What it cannot tell is whether its buyers would accept a cost-sharing price formula, or what volumes they would offer if they did. Which of Milliken's (1987) types of uncertainty dominates?
5. Residents near a dyeing factory have a well-founded complaint about effluent entering a canal and want it fixed before the monsoon, but they have no means of pressuring the company. Using Mitchell, Agle, and Wood's (1997) model, how would they be classified, and what would most likely make them definitive stakeholders?
6. Christensen, Raynor, and McDonald (2015) argued that Uber was not a disruptive innovation in their sense. Which reasoning best reflects their argument?
7. A strategy team produces a PESTEL analysis with 42 factors, each rated "medium" importance, and updates it once a year. Drawing on Duncan (1972) and Milliken (1987), what is the most serious weakness of this analysis?
8. A mobile-payments firm built its customer base among people who previously had no bank account, and over a decade it became very large. Established banks in the same country have kept growing. Testing this against the four elements used by King and Baatartogtokh (2015), which conclusion is best supported?
9. A board member argues: "Stakeholder theory is useless, because a company that tries to serve everyone is accountable to no one." Which evaluation is most defensible?
10. Facing a trade-policy shock whose outcome depends on negotiations between two governments and on buyers' reactions, a board demands a single three-year forecast of the tariff rate before it will approve any action. Which response is most defensible?
12. References
- Bower, J. L., & Christensen, C. M. (1995). Disruptive technologies: Catching the wave. Harvard Business Review, 73(1), 43–53.
- Christensen, C. M. (1997). The innovator's dilemma: When new technologies cause great firms to fail. Harvard Business School Press.
- Christensen, C. M., McDonald, R., Altman, E. J., & Palmer, J. E. (2018). Disruptive innovation: An intellectual history and directions for future research. Journal of Management Studies, 55(7), 1043–1078. https://doi.org/10.1111/joms.12349
- Christensen, C. M., Raynor, M. E., & McDonald, R. (2015). What is disruptive innovation? Harvard Business Review, 93(12), 44–53.
- Danneels, E. (2004). Disruptive technology reconsidered: A critique and research agenda. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 21(4), 246–258. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0737-6782.2004.00076.x
- Donaldson, T., & Preston, L. E. (1995). The stakeholder theory of the corporation: Concepts, evidence, and implications. Academy of Management Review, 20(1), 65–91. https://doi.org/10.2307/258887
- Duncan, R. B. (1972). Characteristics of organizational environments and perceived environmental uncertainty. Administrative Science Quarterly, 17(3), 313–327. https://doi.org/10.2307/2392145
- Firestone, J. M., & McElroy, M. W. (2003). Key issues in the new knowledge management. KMCI Press / Butterworth-Heinemann. (Chapter 4 critiques an early version of the Cynefin model.)
- Mowles, C. (2014). Complex, but not quite complex enough: The turn to the complexity sciences in evaluation scholarship. Evaluation, 20(2), 160–175. https://doi.org/10.1177/1356389014527885
- Freeman, R. E. (1984). Strategic management: A stakeholder approach. Pitman. Reissued by Cambridge University Press, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139192675
- Hillman, A. J., & Keim, G. D. (2001). Shareholder value, stakeholder management, and social issues: What's the bottom line? Strategic Management Journal, 22(2), 125–139. https://doi.org/10.1002/1097-0266(200101)22:2<125::AID-SMJ150>3.0.CO;2-H
- Jensen, M. C. (2002). Value maximization, stakeholder theory, and the corporate objective function. Business Ethics Quarterly, 12(2), 235–256. https://doi.org/10.2307/3857812 (Quotations checked against the author's October 2001 working-paper version.)
- King, A. A., & Baatartogtokh, B. (2015). How useful is the theory of disruptive innovation? MIT Sloan Management Review, 57(1), 77–90.
- Kurtz, C. F., & Snowden, D. J. (2003). The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a complex and complicated world. IBM Systems Journal, 42(3), 462–483. https://doi.org/10.1147/sj.423.0462
- Lepore, J. (2014, June 23). The disruption machine: What the gospel of innovation gets wrong. The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/06/23/the-disruption-machine
- Milliken, F. J. (1987). Three types of perceived uncertainty about the environment: State, effect, and response uncertainty. Academy of Management Review, 12(1), 133–143. https://doi.org/10.2307/257999
- Mitchell, R. K., Agle, B. R., & Wood, D. J. (1997). Toward a theory of stakeholder identification and salience: Defining the principle of who and what really counts. Academy of Management Review, 22(4), 853–886. https://doi.org/10.2307/259247
- Puyt, R. W., & Madsen, D. Ø. (2026). The origins of PEST analysis: The genealogy of a canonical strategy tool [Working paper]. SSRN. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5644046
- Snowden, D. J., & Boone, M. E. (2007). A leader's framework for decision making. Harvard Business Review, 85(11), 68–76.
Official and news sources for the Bangladesh cases
- "How new US tariff will affect Bangladesh's trade." Prothom Alo (English), 24 July 2026. https://en.prothomalo.com/business/local/bmn7iaxc77
- "US again imposes 10% tariff on Bangladesh." The Daily Star, 25 July 2026. https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/diplomacy/news/us-again-imposes-10-tariff-bangladesh-4231701
- "US forced labour tariff leaves Bangladesh facing at least 25% duty." Bonik Barta (English), 25 July 2026. https://en.bonikbarta.com/business/Gu9vbwJd7cEuXb3Z
- "New US tariff regime gives Bangladesh 2.5 percentage point edge over RMG rivals." UNB, 25 July 2026. https://unb.com.bd/category/Business/new-us-tariff-regime-gives-bangladesh-25-percentage-point-edge-over-rmg-rivals/191510
- The White House. "Joint Statement on Framework for United States-Bangladesh Agreement on Reciprocal Trade," 9 February 2026. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2026/02/joint-statement-on-framework-for-united-states-bangladesh-agreement-on-reciprocal-trade
- Supreme Court of the United States. Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287, decided 20 February 2026. https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-1287_4gcj.pdf
- Office of the United States Trade Representative. "Notice of Actions in Section 301 Investigations of Acts, Policies, and Practices of Various Economies Related to the Failure of Each Economy to Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition on the Importation of Goods Produced with Forced Labor," July 2026. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/07/28/2026-15181/notice-of-actions-in-section-301-investigations-of-acts-policies-and-practices-of-various-economies
- "A brief history of bKash: Trajectory, funding, and lessons." Future Startup, 22 April 2025. https://futurestartup.com/2025/04/22/a-brief-history-of-bkash-trajectory-funding-and-lessons/
- Chen, G. "The growth of mobile financial services in Bangladesh." CGAP blog, 10 September 2012. https://www.cgap.org/blog/growth-of-mobile-financial-services-in-bangladesh
- "How strategic investment in building digital ecosystem pays off bKash." The Business Standard, 28 April 2026. https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/banking/how-strategic-investment-building-digital-ecosystem-pays-bkash-1423411
The Dhanshiri Apparels case, the illustrative examples in Sections 1, 2, and 4, the classification tables, and the coping practices in Section 7 are original teaching material for this series, not findings reported by the sources above.
This article closes Module 01 of The Human Capital MBA. Module 02 turns to strategic management.
FAQ
Isn't "complex" just a more impressive word for "complicated"?
In this literature they mean different things, and the difference shows up in a practical test. Ask whether an expert with enough time and data could work out the answer before you act. If so, the problem is complicated, however many parts it has. If the outcome depends on how other people will adapt to each other and to your own move, so that studying it longer would not settle it, the problem is complex. Many real situations contain both kinds of part.
How do I know which Cynefin domain I am in?
Often you do not, at least at first, and the framework treats that as normal: the central domain of disorder exists for exactly this condition. The useful move is to break the situation into parts and ask the question for each part separately. When colleagues disagree about the domain, the disagreement is itself information, since Kurtz and Snowden observed that people tend to interpret unclear situations according to the kind of action they prefer.
If Cynefin has not been empirically validated, why should a manager use it?
Its authors present it as an aid to sense-making, not a tested predictive model, so it should be judged by whether it improves the conversation about a problem: whether it stops a team from applying analysis where experiments are needed, or experiments where analysis would do. It should not be cited as evidence that a particular approach will work, and a diagnosis made with it is a judgment that can be wrong.
Does stakeholder theory mean every stakeholder should get equal weight?
No. Freeman's definition identifies who can affect or be affected by the organization, which is a wide set, but it does not say their claims are equal. Mitchell, Agle, and Wood's salience model describes how managers in fact prioritize, by power, legitimacy, and urgency. Whether managers ought to give more weight to groups with legitimate claims but little power is a normative question, which is why Donaldson and Preston insisted on keeping the descriptive, instrumental, and normative versions of the theory apart.
Should we stop using PESTEL?
No, but it should be treated as a starting checklist. Its strength is breadth: it pushes attention beyond the industry. Its weakness is that it produces a static list. Improve it by ranking factors on both impact and uncertainty, noting how factors interact, dating each entry, and asking for each high-impact item whether the uncertainty is about the state of the world, its effect on you, or your possible responses.
Everyone says our industry is being disrupted. How can I tell whether that is true in Christensen's sense?
Ask four questions. Did the new entrant begin with customers the incumbents were over-serving or not serving at all? Was its offer worse on the measures mainstream customers value, but good enough for its own segment? Are incumbents ignoring it for rational reasons, such as low margins or a small market? Is it improving fast enough to attract mainstream customers? If the answers are mostly no, the threat may be serious, but it is a different kind of threat and needs a different response, such as matching a better product or lobbying on a regulation.
Does disruption theory say incumbents should always set up a separate unit?
Bower and Christensen (1995) did recommend placing the disruptive business in an independent organization, so that it would not have to compete for resources with the core business. Later critics, including Danneels (2004), questioned the merits of the spin-off prescription, and its success depends on how the separate unit is funded, staffed, and connected to the parent. It is an option to evaluate, not a rule.
How does this differ from ordinary risk management?
Risk registers and probability-impact matrices work best for risks that can be estimated from comparable cases, and for monitoring what is changing outside the firm. They are weaker on response uncertainty in complex situations, where the outcome depends on others' reactions and no reliable probability exists. Article 04 discussed this limit through Knight's distinction. The practical complement is a portfolio of small probes, buffers, and staged commitments alongside the register.
Why does a human capital series spend an article on the business environment?
Because coping with complexity is carried out by people. Early signals of change usually reach frontline and specialist staff first, and whether those signals travel upward depends on reporting routes, psychological safety, and how managers are appraised. Recruitment, promotion, and performance systems built only for efficient execution of known routines leave an organization short of the judgment and experimentation that complex environments require.